Week 15 Results

Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:27:13 PM GMT+2

The Weigh Out

It’s finally over. Our long national nightmare of people trying to eat well and exercise has ended. No more will we have to buck the trend of Americans gaining weight. No more will we have to eat kale, whatever that is. And no more will we have to be slave to a scale every Friday. We are free!

Unless, of course, we want our health to be not sucky when we get really old and fraile. But who can predict so many days into the future like that?

Race to the End

Now we can relax and look forward to the upcoming national election. I’m sure it will be a fun, exciting, close race to decide which candidate we hate more.

It may be just as close as our beloved BFLG race this year. It was decided by only 0.2 lb., which is probably statistically insignificant, less than the tolerance of the scale, or possibly due to a typo I made in Excel. Oh, well.

Although Nervenartz K. Sledge gave it a great run in the end, Big Human Lap is our largest loser.

Big Human Lap lost 21.2 lb (8.1%) without getting taller (or shorter). He exceeded his goal of 15 lb. The only other person to meet or exceed his goal is Radon Ebbs of 3 lb.

“If you want to be successful, set low goals.”
—Radon Ebbs

Nervenartz K. Sledge’s run was based on his strong off-season training, where he lost 37 lb and gained considerable bonus points in the process.

Thy Error Bites also finished well, ending up in third place by losing 13.8 lb (6.4%). He was successful in losing enough weight (down to 201.6 lb) to almost reach his average weight (195.8 lb) over the last 9 years. So close. (Not really.)

Congratulations, losers!

For those that did not lose weight this year, you have our thoughts and prayers. All you have to do next year is just change everything about you.

Dieting won’t lead to a better life, a better life will lead to a better diet.

(See your weight through the years.)

Week 14 Results

Thursday, June 16, 2016 at 6:42:50 PM GMT+2

Day of Reckoning

I reckon it must be the last day of the contest, the last weigh-in. The fight for first place has been pretty close the last three weeks. Who will be our new BFLG Champ?

For all those that have lost weight so far, congratulations. I’m sure it wasn’t easy, and wasn’t as much as you had hoped (so far only one person, Big Human Lap, has met or exceeded his target), but it’s still an accomplishment. The challenge will be keeping it up after the contest.

For the rest, I think it’s time to think really hard about many of your life decisions that you’ve made so far, the ones that brought you to this place in your life right now. And then stop at Tim’s on your way home for donuts, because, hey, Tim’s!

Home Stretching

Big Human Lap has regained his lead over A Far Ash Arm, and it will come down to this final weigh in. No pressure.

Nervenartz K. Sledge in third place and Cher Jonc En in fourth theoretically have a chance to finish on top, but would need a pretty strong finish to get there.

The four BFLGs who are over the average score are Thy Error Bites, Meal Urge Maniac, I Robe Jeep, and Sneezed Rims In.

The rest are at Tim’s, obviously.

Week 13 Results

Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 8:26:23 PM GMT+2

Two Weeks of not Winning

There are only two weigh-ins left. Although this BFLG group is smaller than previous years, the number of people who gave up before the end is higher than normal. Since hard numbers make things sound scientific-cy and stuff, let’s say that 48% percent have given up so far this year vs. 25% in all other years combined.

(To those who know me, you are correct in guessing that I actually counted the numbers through the previous 8 diet contests to get this statistic.)

For the sake of what little dignity you have left, you owe it yourself to weigh in the last two weeks, even if to simply measure your level of failure. Sure, you couldn’t even lose a few pounds over a period of 13 weeks, and that there’s no way you can hold your head high because you haven’t accomplished anything, but at least weigh in so I can track the poor state of your health over the years.

It’s the least you can do. Almost literally. (It just beats out “breathing.”)

Last Week Today

In a surprising twist, A Far Ash Arm has leapfrogged over both Nervenartz K. Sledge and Big Human Lap to take the lead. This has the makings of a close battle to the end.

It’s as if A Far Ash Arm had sailed across the waters in wooden horses while breathing fire to overcome Nervenartz K. Sledge, who looked like he was dead in the water back in week 8, but miracously came back two weeks ago to challenge for the lead while surprising Big Human Lap, who was content to sit on his lead while creating an actual big human lap. You couldn't write a better script for a weekly one-hour tv show on cable.

As a point of reference, here are some statistics from winners of previous years.

Avg Score: 15.1
Avg Loss: 23.4 lb
Avg % loss: 11%

As for the rest of us, we are on track to have the second smallest average weight loss of around 4 lb, just above the worst ever 3.4 lb average loss from 2013, and well below the average of 5.9 lb.

In an effort to improve our statistics in the last two weeks, I recommend trying the following:

I don’t know if any of this will help, I just like to see if people do stuff that I tell them.

Week 12 Results

Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 10:08:53 PM GMT+2

I apologize for missing the last couple of updates. Getting fat on pasta in Italy Being on vacation is no excuse, so I will try to make sure I don’t miss any more.

Big Human Lap is still our leader, having already reached his goal weight. He can’t let up though, as Nervenarzt K. Sledge has stormed all the way back up to second. Cher Jonc En, the winner from two years ago, is also within striking distance in third place.

Rounding the Group Which Is Actually Dieting® are A Far Ash Arm and Meal Urge Maniac.

Four others are in the We're Officially Trying, But Are Barely Above Statistical Significance: Thy Error Bites, Sneezed Rims In, I Robe Jeep, and Jolly Anode Ogre.

The rest are sad tree fodder, pitifully holding the refrigerator door closed from approaching food wights, getting ripped to shreds by the undead calories of late night snacking and growing extra layers of fat as if Winter is Coming. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

“Valar Moregarlicbread” (All Men Must Diet)

For three more weeks, anyway.

Week 9 Results

Tuesday, May 9, 2016 at 9:08:27 PM GMT+2

The Fallen

We have our first official casualty for the 2016 BFLG Hungry Games: No Crook. There may be additional casualties, but those other participants haven’t acknowledged it. They are like the zombie undead amongst us, but instead of feeding on brains, it’s probably pasta. Or cheesy bread. Undead BFLG zombies love cheesy bread.

And so as we pass beyond the half-way point, our new leader is Big Human Lap, followed by Cher Jonc Er and A Far Ash Arm.

This is a big change, as Nervenarzt K. Sledge has dropped out of the top three for the first time due to a lack of linearity. It's not surprising that Big Human Lap and Cher Jonc Er are in the top 3 for linearity (the other person is Mill at Dell Clench). Having a good linearity means that you are losing (or gaining) weight consistently.

Big Human Lap is also the only one with a double-digit weight loss so far—13.6 lb.

The Felled Off For A While Now

Down at the bottom is the gang of three. This time they are No Crook, Bag Jar Ooze, and Dang Bro Zen Rho. But since No Crook is out, we will elevate Radon Ebbs down to this group.

The Almost Fell Off Completely But Managed to Hang On

Last week there was a study discussing how well participants on tv’s Biggest Loser managed to keep the weight off compared to other dieters. After 6 years, 57% of the 14 biggest losers managed to keep at least 10% weight loss. This is better than the typical 20-27% of dieters who manage to keep 10% weight loss after several years.

Unfortunately, the Biggest Loser contestants also regained 90 of the 128 lb they lost on average (which still leaves a 38 lb weight loss).

One of the biggest challenges facing dieters is the decrease in the resting metabolic rate (RMR) that automatically follows a lower body weight. This was as much as 500 kcal/day lower after 6 years for these contestants, significantly more than what scientists expected.

With one group from the National Weight Control Registry, over 87% were able to maintain at least a 10% weight loss after many years through a serious commitment to exercise. No word on how much cheesy bread was involved.

Week 7 Results

Thursday, April 28, 2016 at 8:57:54 PM GMT+2

Slackers Walk amongst Us

There is no change in our top three. It’s still Nervenarzt K. Sledge, Big Human Lap, and A Far Ash Arm, but it’s getting closer. Cher Jonc En has broken out from the pack to join this group as well.

It’s possible that we’ve each lost an average of 2.8 lb so far (some more average than others). But it’s difficult to make highly confident analysis because accurate data is lacking (i.e., not enough people are weighing in).

I’m looking at you, Keg Stamina.

I’m also looking at blowing snow outside my window (consults calendar, quietly curses).

Why Wait?

As motivation for weighing in more regularly on Fridays, I will recommend to Thy Error Bytes to pick up some of Tim's donuts in the morning. (Holes in donuts offset the calories contained in the rest of the donut, resulting in no net gain. I read that on the internet, so it must be true.)

Other things I’ve read on the internet include two studies, one from Cornell University and one from University of Pittsburg, which show that monitoring your weight regularly helps you to be more confident in managing your weight loss and in keeping it off.

TL;DR: weighing in makes you skinny, according to the internet.

(We’ve already proven the opposite is true—after the diet contest, we all gain weight.)

Week 6 Results

Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 9:13:52 PM GMT+2

Nervenarzt K. Sledge is still in first place, but probably not the way he would prefer it. He gained weight to maintain his lead. Jumping all the way up to second place is ex-lurker Big Human Lap after a dropping almost 2 lb. A Far Ash Arm has dropped to third, even after a good week.

Big Human Lap has lost the most, both in terms of percentage (4.7%) and weight (12.2 lb). I could bring up the fact that he started with the second highest weight, but I won’t, because I don’t want to take away from his accomplishments so far.

A Far Ash Arm has lost 4.1%, and Thy Error Bites has lost 3.1%.

This is about the time in the contest when I comment that the pack has separated into the ones who are really doing well (see top three places), the ones who are really trying, and the rest who are sneaking donuts and bagels when no one is looking.

This year the last two groups are overlapping, which means either the ones normally trying are slacking, or the slackers are now over reaching. Since I can’t tell which is which, I’ll just congratulate/shame everyone and encourage you to keep it up/tell you to get off your butt and keep it up/get a move on it!

Actually, the following three are really trying to be our main slackers this year. I congratulate them as well for their consistent effort of doing nothing: Dang Bro Zen Rho, Radon Ebbs, and No Crook.

Until next week.

Week 5 Results

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 11:05:27 PM GMT+2

We’re one-third of the way through the contest, and it’s starting to get interesting. Nervenarzt K. Sledge’s once unassailable lead is under assail from A Far Ash Arm. She is treating this contest seriously, with the highest percentage loss at 3.8%. Jolly Anode Ogre is in third place, but Big Human Lap is lurking behind in fourth place, having lost 3.2%. For most normal people, that would be the equivalent of a large appendage of some sort.

There are three people who are above their starting weight: Bag Jar Ooze, Dang Bro Zen Rho, and No Crook.

Because of his recent gain, Dang Bro Zen Rho has dropped 17 places to 21st. Meanwhile, Sneezed Rims In has climbed 11 places to 9th place.

This week’s cellar dwellers, to the surprise of no one, are Dang Bro Zen Rho, No Crook, and Radon Ebbs.

And now that pesky holidays and vacations are over, we can finally concentrate on how to work the algorithm for this contest to our advantage, or giving anonymous donuts to participants ahead of us—anything that moves us up the charts without actually having to eat less and move more (hint: try growing taller during the contest).

Week 4 Results

Monday, April 4, 2016 at 10:37:42 PM GMT+2

Still holding on to his commanding lead while doing nothing is Nervenartz K. Sledge. Big Human Lap has slid behind in second place, followed by Whackier Taro Owl on his surfboard.

Big Human Lap has lost the most weight—8.4 lb (3.2%). It’s as if he’s actually trying.

The BFLG with the best correlation without taking a Cook Rule is Meal Urge Maniac at -0.997. Big Human Lap (-0.990) and Jolly Anode Ogre (-0.983) are next, each with one Cook Rule weigh-in.

Speaking of the Cook Rule, No Crook is the only BFLG this week who has gained weight since the beginning of the contest. I could discuss his weight gain of +0.4 lb or that each week has been higher than the inital weigh in, but I think nobody really wants to see him do the virtual BFLG walk of shame. (Shame! Shame! Shame!)

Man, still three more weeks before GoT starts again.

As we look who are at the bottom of the list, we meet again No Crook, followed by Radon Ebbs and Bag Jar Ooze.

As a final reminder, please don’t forget to send me your weight after you weigh in. Thanks!

Week 3 Results

Wednesday, March 31, 2016 at 7:41:50 AM EDT

In no surprise, Nervenartz K. Sledge still leads by a wide margin. But in a shocking surprise, Dang Bro Zen Rho has moved into second place. Along with Whackier Taro Owl in third place, that makes three of the four lowest BMIs at the top of the list.

Skinny people are currently winning this contest. This could be expected at the end of a diet contest, not at the beginning.

Ignoring Bag Jar Ooze for the moment, the bottom of the pack are A Disc Area Margarita, No Crook, and Radon Ebbs.

Big Human Lap has lost the most weight at 4.4 lb, and this week, only No Crook has gained weight from the start of the contest. That's actually pretty good for us, even in just the third week of the contest.

There are too many missing weights from people to have a good average weight for this week, but we have lost a total of 47 lb (except for, you know, No Crook).

And now that Easter is over and the snow is gone (at least, until next Monday), it should be even easier to eat better and exercise more. That's two fewer excuses that we can use.

Week 2 Results

Tuesday, March 22, 2016 at 9:32:08 PM CET

After two whole weeks of extremely intense excercise and dieting (that’s what everyone is doing, right?), we have lost a total of 34 lbs. Except for No Crook and A Disc Area Margaritas, who both combined managed to gain 3.4 lb. So our total weight loss is really 30.1 lb.

The current Median Man is Odd Bat Mown. Remember, if you look worse than he does, be worried. Be very, very worried.

Nervenarzt K. Sledge still has a commanding lead over the pack. In fact, he may have stopped weighing in to let the rest try and catch up. Which is precisely what A Far Ash Arm is doing—catching up. She has zoomed to second place, followed by slimmer surfer (not a super hero) Whackier Taro Owl.

Bag Jar Ooze and Dang Bro Zen Rho have not weighed in in a while, so I won’t comment yet on the fact that they are dead last.

That leaves Papa Needs Elk Run, Radon Ebbs, and A Disc Area Margaritas down at the bottom.

Finally, I put everyone’s year-over-year updated charts on one page. They are in no particular order. Click at your risk.

Week 1 Results

Tuesday, March 15, 2016 at 10:22:10 PM CET

After one week, we are all off to a good start. Except for No Crook. He’s the only one to gain weight from the people who weighed in this week.

Nervenarzt K. Sledge is still maintaining his commanding lead, followed by Whackier Taro Owl, who still needs to step away from his surf board long enough to weigh in this week.

Coming in third is Torn Men Rev Clan, who registered the largest change in weight this week with a loss of 2.8 lb.

Eight participants still have not weighed in this week. I can provide a more complete commentary when more people submit their weight.

Week 0: Let’s Get This Thing Started

Tuesday, March 8, 2016 5:33:31 PM CET

The distribution of BFLG contestants this year is... interesting. For the first time since the days of Danish Am I, the heaviest BFLG (Bag Jar Ooze) is at least twice the weight of the lightest (A Far Ash Arm).

Year   St Dv   Med   BFLG  
2016 45.44 192.2 Odd Mown Bat / Keg Stamina
2016 42.00 197.4 Bread Snorter
2014 39.68 189.6 Odd Mown Bat / Nervenartz K. Sledge
2013 34.50 208.2 Thy Error Bites
2012 41.80 204.8 Add Gin Wave / Twit Erasing Perk
2011 42.70 202.6 Sneezed Rims In

I’d check more years, but I’m too lazy to do that much work. So take a look at Odd Mown Bat or Keg Stamina. If you look worse than they do, start worrying.

The six BFLGs who are beyond 1 standard deviation from the median are:

Generally, your BMI should be under 25. This year, we have as many BFLG with a BMI under 25:

as over 30:

Basically, one-third of the BFLGs are trolling the other third while the last third watches with a bemused, self-assured grin as they sip their tangerine frappé mocha latte cappuccino (no whip—as if).

Finally, these BFLG started out with bonus points, meaning that they either lost weight since the last contest, or didn’t add much. Special shout-out to Nervenartz K. Sledge, who went the extra distance of lopping off body parts to lose 37 lb since the last contest.

More importantly, they also lost weight during the last contest, which qualified them for bonus points, unlike those who gained weight in last year’s contest but had lost weight since:

No bonus points for you.

Stupid algorithm.

P.S. Some one please check if Radon Ebbs is okay. In the last 7 years, his average has been 169.9 with a standard deviation of 1.36 lb. He’s ballooned 6.5 lb over his average.

Rules

Tuesday, March 1, 2016 12:02:15 AM CET

  1. The contest will start on Friday, March 4, 2016 with the initial weigh-in, height, and weight goal. Each Friday morning after that will be a weigh-in day until Friday, June 17, 2016 (15 weeks). For Good Friday, the weigh in will be either the Thursday before, or the Monday after.
  2. Each location (Auburn Hills North and South) will have an official weigh-in scale. Weigh-in is done with shoes off, pockets empty. Clothing is optional, but highly recommended.

    If you cannot weigh in on Friday, please make arrangements with the person in charge of the scale at your facility. In Auburn Hills North, please see Thy Error Bites (A2035).
  3. Weights will be published on a website using an anagram of the participant's name. A participant may select an anagram, or an anagram will be chosen for the participant.
  4. Taunting is allowed, and sometimes encouraged. Complaining about the scale is tolerated, but fruitless. It is not broken.
  5. Cook Rule: There can be a total of 2 missed weeks that will be interpolated. At the third missed weigh-in, the previous week will be used. If 3 or more consecutive weeks are missed, then I will invoke mystical weight loss contest algorithms to make something up.
  6. Bonus points will be given if your starting weight is lower than either your starting or ending weight from the last diet contest, if you lost weight in the last contest. If your weight is lower than the previous starting weight, you will get 25% credit for that weight loss. If it is lower than your final weight, you get an additional 50% credit for being below that weight.

    For those engineers without reading comprehension, this can be summed up in the following formula:

    /* Bonus to be added to ContiScore (Percent_weight_change*200 + Weight_change) */
    if (prev_end_weight > current_weight )
    bonus = (prev_start_weight - prev_end_weight)*0.25 + (prev_end_weight - current_weight)*0.50;
    else if (prev_start_weight > current_weight )
      bonus = (prev_start_weight - current_weight)*0.25;
    else
      bonus = The_Zero_who_ate_too_much;

     If you have not participated in previous contests, no bonus points for you.
  7. Points will be awarded based on weight change and body characteristics, and how linearly you lose the weight. Highest point total wins the contest. The formula is roughly (or exactly, depending on your definition):

    ContiScore = (Percent_weight_change*200 + Weight_change) ;
    Score = (ABS(ContiScore)+Bonus) ÷ Linear_Density * ABS(Weight_Slope_Correlation) ;

     (Please note that by using absolute values in the formula, it is possible to get points by gaining weight.)